Wednesday, April 22, 2009

The Cars America Wants to Pay For?

Detroit is on the ropes, Toyota posts first loss in 70 years, GM is idling plants for weeks.  We've all heard of the bad news.  But how did we get here?  Consumer confidence is gone and no one is buying cars.  And how do we get out?  America and its government is pinning its hopes on new green-energy solutions and new technology.  America will support its car industry with bailouts, but they're going to have make the kinds of cars that America needs to be energy independent. The directive is to build energy efficient cars, hybrids, plug-ins, electric powered, hydrogen fueled, E85 compatibles.  These are all noble goals, but someone must bear the cost of bringing these new technologies to market.  You don't get the equivalent of an Apollo Program for free.  Not only are we talking about pure invention and discovery that must occur to deliver cars that are affordable and meet the needs of consumers, but the entire fueling infrastructure must be reinvented and redeveloped.  The money that the government is now spending to bailout Detroit is paying salaries and suppliers.  Its not going to research and development.  So how do we expect it to happen, when these companies are struggling to make the monthly payroll?

A large government backed initiative on alternate fuels, batteries, fuel cells, light weight structures and electronic powertrains is critical to success.  There was a feeble attempt at this in the 1990's, the Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles (PNGV), but it was severely underfunded and as a result overly ambitious.  Next, in 2003 the Bush administration created the much criticized FreedomCar program that seemed to push these goals out to a future we'd never see.  What we need now is a real "space program" for cars, massive investment and real near-term goals.  China is doing it, and if we don't, we'll be left behind.

You might think that companies like Fisker and Tesla are doing it on their own, so why a government initiative to help Detroit?  The fact is these companies are not making the transition to high volume affordable cars without government help.  Tesla is waiting to receive government bailout dollars before developing their high-volume Model S sedan.  Fisker, while not seeking money directly, is relying on powertrains developed by General Motors.

But even before a serious space-effort type program, the most important thing to do is actually create demand for these vehicles through market driven methods.  Small cars with huge development costs that lose money on every sale are not going to get the job done.  As long as gasoline is cheap, demand will be largely skewed toward large, inefficient vehicles.  We must as a nation accept a huge tax increase on gasoline.  But we must not only accept it, we must ask for it.  Most of our politicians regard a tax on gas as political suicide and until they hear that we want it, it won't happen.  The unfair-burden-on-the-poor arguments against a gas tax can easily be overcome with tax credits.  The only way to create a disincentive to driving inefficient vehicles is high prices at the gas pump everyday.

So what kinds of cars do Americans want to pay for?  Its up to you to decide.

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